Brisbane Solidifies Status As Fastest Growing City

“Brisbane leads the country in terms of price growth, and the experts predict the positive outlook to roll over onto 2022.” – Zac Gleeson, Director

 

Article written by Melinda Jennison at API Magazine

Brisbane has cemented its place as the fastest growing capital city market throughout Australia, leading the nation in terms of dwelling price growth, ahead of all other capitals, but even more so in the housing market compared to the unit market.

And there are few surprises as to why this has happened.

Housing affordability is less pressing in Brisbane, and we have had fewer lockdowns due to COVID-19.  Additionally, we have continued to see a positive rate of migration, especially from those moving interstate.  This continues to fuel the housing demand throughout the city.

Listing volumes are also a lot lower in Brisbane with 33.9 per cent fewer properties available for sale in the 4 weeks up to November 28, compared with the five-year average.

This is different to Sydney, where listing volumes are more in line with the long-term average, and Melbourne, where listing volumes are actually 7.9 per cent above the long-term average.

These differences in supply dynamics are certainly playing a part in the upward price growth momentum in Brisbane.

With the stimulus from the federal government boosting construction, new builds in fresh estates are thriving, but this is having little impact on the low supply levels of established properties in locations where there is a scarcity of land and high demand.

These are the locations where we are seeing maximum price growth.

A number of predictions have been made in relation to the direction of the Brisbane market both next year and into 2023.

According to some of the big banks and also SQM Research, the outlook for 2022 looks positive, regardless of the projected scenario.

Looking further ahead towards 2023, the predictions for Brisbane property values range from price falls of 1 per cent(Westpac) to price falls of 8 per cent (Commonwealth Bank).

Obviously as we look further into the future, the assumptions are also less reliable.

Therefore, we prefer to report on the outlook once we have more certainty about when there will be any potential increase in interest rates as well as other impacts that could influence the demand for property such as changes to credit policies and the economic recovery as a whole.

Tighter credit conditions came into effect this month, with new applications for finance now being assessed with an interest rate buffer of 3 per cent above the current mortgage rates, which is an increase of 0.5 per cent from where it was prior.  We are yet to see any impact associated with this change throughout Brisbane.

There is definitely no slowdown in the demand for property in Brisbane at this time.

Sales volumes were 51.5 per cent higher in the 12 months up to October 2021 compared to the same period last year.

There is a high volume of property transactions occurring, which is evidence of the confidence that buyers have in the Brisbane market.

There has been a shift in the composition of buyers recently with lending data now showing that first home buyers have dropped to 26.9 per cent of all loan commitments.

Instead, we are seeing an uplift in investment buyers with investors now making up 32.8 per cent of all lending commitments across Queensland.

Whilst fixed interest rates have started to climb, the Reserve Bank has been clear that a number of conditions need to be met before the official cash rate does increase.

Specifically, they have confirmed that the inflation rate needs to be sustained within the 2-3 per cent range before any changes will be made.

The latest inflation figures showed a rebound in the last quarter, although the factors contributing to this result (ie: higher commodity prices and supply chain issues) may be mitigated over time.

Additionally, with international borders reopening, wages growth may be suppressed, another factor that may delay any sustainable change to inflation.

Time will tell, but when the official cash rate does start to rise (and it will at some point) then it is likely that the rate of any increases will be gradual so that any impacts on the economy can be assessed.

With the vaccine roll-out in place, we also now find ourselves in a position where international migration will again be possible.  This will add further ongoing demand to housing markets.

Brisbane property market prices

The latest Hedonic Home Value Index data by Corelogic showed the median dwelling value in Brisbane increased by 2.9 per cent over the month of November.

This price growth is a further 0.56 per cent growth compared to what was observed in Brisbane last month, which is evidence that in Brisbane, the momentum of price growth continues to accelerate.

The current median value for dwellings across Greater Brisbane is $662,199 which is $20,102 higher than just one month ago.

The quarterly growth in dwelling values across Greater Brisbane is now up 7.4 per cent.  Annual growth for the last 12 months for Brisbane Dwellings is now 25.4 per cent.

Brisbane’s higher value properties are still driving the growth as you can see in the CoreLogic Data below.

In the three months to October 2021, the top 25 per cent of values experienced 7.3 per cent growth (up from 6.7 per cent at the end of September) compared to 5 per cent growth in the lowest 25 per cent of property values across the city (up from 4.2 per cent last month).

Even the middle 50 per cent of values in Brisbane saw an increase in the three months to October of 6.1 per cent, compared to 5.7 per cent growth in the three months to September.

All segments of the Brisbane market are in a strong growth phase right now, but the top end of the market is growing at the fastest pace.

Brisbane house prices

The Brisbane housing market is on fire!  We saw median values for the greater Brisbane region increase 3.2 per cent in just one months throughout November, up from 2.8 per cent growth throughout October.

This is a new record high for monthly growth figures recorded for Brisbane in the current property boom.  The 12-month change in Brisbane house prices has been 27.9 per cent

The current median value for a house in Greater Brisbane is now $757,194, the highest it has ever been.  This is $25,802 MORE than one month ago!  Every month this seems to keep growing and growing.

Brisbane unit prices

The Unit Market in Brisbane retracted slightly again in its rate of growth throughout November 2021.

Units were up 1.1 per cent this month, compared to 1.3 per cent last month.  The 12-month growth for units across Brisbane is now 11.4 per cent.   The current median unit price in Brisbane is $443,981 which is $6,895 more than one month ago.

Full Article: API Magazine